The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is preparing to implement a new petrol pricing system following the Naira-for-crude and Naira-for-refined products agreements between the Federal Government and Dangote Refinery.
This development comes amid rising crude oil prices, driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and the increased distribution of petrol from Dangote Refinery across Nigeria.
With crude oil now trading above $78 per barrel and the Naira exchanging at ₦1,660 to the dollar, industry insiders speculate that petrol prices may climb above ₦1,350 per litre soon.
In early September, NNPC raised the price of petrol at its stations from ₦617 per litre to between ₦855 and N897, depending on location.
The move followed NNPC’s commencement of lifting petrol from Dangote Refinery, which began on September 15.
As the sole off-taker of petrol from the facility, NNPC had lifted approximately 103 million litres by the end of September, utilizing over 2,200 trucks during the period.
Despite plans to lift 400 million litres of petrol from the refinery at a rate of 25 million litres per day, performance data showed that only 102.97 million litres were transported within the designated time frame.
NNPC has been purchasing petrol from Dangote Refinery at ₦898.78 per litre and selling it to marketers at ₦765.99 per litre, shouldering a subsidy of ₦133 per litre.
As more consignments from Dangote Refinery reach fueling stations, NNPC has indicated that petrol prices will increase to reflect depot sales, statutory charges, transportation, and distribution costs.
Although current prices have remained between ₦855 and ₦897, industry analysts predict further adjustments as NNPC depletes its imported stock and transitions to relying more on Dangote Refinery supplies.
A pricing template released by NNPC on September 16 estimated that petrol would be priced at ₦950.22 per litre in Lagos, ₦980.22 in Rivers State, and ₦992.22 in Abuja.
In the northern regions, prices were projected to reach ₦999.22, while in states like Borno, petrol could cost as much as ₦1,019 per litre.
In the South-east, the price was expected to be around ₦980.22, and in the South-west, it would be ₦960.22 per litre.
However, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and the rising global price of crude oil have rendered these estimates outdated.
